T2D market will grow from a total of $48.1bn sales in 2019 to $91.9 bn in 2029

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a crowded and competitive landscape, with market growth primarily driven by an increasing diagnosed prevalent population across nine major markets (9MM*) and the emergence of novel pipeline agents, says GlobalData.

The company’s latest report, ‘Type 2 Diabetes: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029’, reveals that the T2D market will see significant growth between 2019 and 2029, with the 9MM increasing from a total of $48.1billion sales in 2019 to $91.9 billion in 2029, with drug sales almost doubling at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.7 per cent.

Marketed therapies that are likely to drive growth across the market include Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1RAs Ozempic (semaglutide) and the oral semaglutide Rybelsus, AstraZeneca’s Farxiga (dapagliflozin) in the sodium-glucose linked transporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT-2I) space, and follow-on biologic insulins such as the insulin glargine Abasaglar.

Akash Patel, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “There are also multiple drugs in the pipeline, with a significant number developed in the emerging markets of India and China by domestic pharma companies for their own rapidly growing markets.”

Novel classes that are emerging include a pipeline agent in Phase III for the novel GLP-1RA/gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP) agonist class, Lilly’s first-in-class therapy tirzepatide. Additionally, there are the glimins, a novel class, with Poxel SA’s first-in-class oral therapy Imeglimin currently in pre-registration in Japan, and a novel PPAR agonist class, Chipscreen Biosciences’ Bilessglu (chiglitazar), a pan-PPAR agonist and a first-in-class therapy currently in pre-registration in China.

Patel continues, “These novel therapies all address key unmet needs in the T2D therapy space, with tirzepatide addressing comorbidities – particularly obesity – and Imeglimin having an entirely novel mechanism that is useful for patients who poorly respond to traditional oral antidiabetic therapies. There are other promising therapies such as Biocon’s oral insulin (insulin tregopil), currently in Phase III in India, which will likely dominate the Indian prandial insulin market.”