NHS waiting lists could hit 10m by year end

NHS waiting lists could swell to 10 million by the end of the year, and possibly higher if there is a second wave of COVID-19 and a lack of treatment or a vaccine, the NHS Confederation warns.

A report published by the organisation highlights that the health service in England is facing an uphill battle as it grapples with managing thousands of very sick and recovering COVID-19 patients, maintain social distancing and restarting services to treat cancer, stroke and heart care.

'This challenge will be made harder as healthcare services will be operating with much reduced capacity – possibly around 60% of normal because of the need for infection control measures, including the need to adhere to social distancing measures for patients and staff,' it said.

A primary challenge will be dealing with the huge backlog of treatment paused during the novel coronavirus pandemic, with the waiting list for routine procedures already overshooting 4 million 'now certain to rise significantly'.

The warning follows that from the BHF that 28,000 inpatient heart procedures had been delayed during the outbreak, and that from Cancer Research UK that around 2.4 million people in the UK are currently waiting for cancer screening, tests or treatment.

In a letter to the Prime Minister, the NHS Confederation warns 'it will not be possible to simply ‘switch on’ NHS services immediately', and calls on the government to manage expectations on how quickly key patient services can be restored.

The body also calls for an extension to emergency NHS funding, establishing an ongoing arrangement with the private sector to clear the treatment backlog, and a commitment to acknowledge and address health inequalities through upcoming guidance and policy reform.

“Political leaders have a vital role to play in reassuring the public that every step possible is being taken to manage the virus, while safely bringing back services that had to be paused. Retaining, public confidence and trust in the NHS will be vital over the next few months,” said the group's chief executive Niall Dickson.

“The NHS wants to get back to providing these vital services - the virus has inflicted pain and suffering throughout the UK, but we also know the measures to combat it have come at a terrible cost to those who have not been able to access the care, treatment and support they need and to many whose conditions have gone undiagnosed.

He also stressed that while there is “a real determination to rise to this challenge”, it will need “extra funding and capacity, not least in rehabilitation and recovery services in the community where so much of the coming demand will be felt.

“But we also need to send a clear message that it will take time to recover from this shock and we need patience and understanding and from politicians, assurances, support and realistic expectations.”