Coronavirus Rate in U.S. May Suddenly Jump, Warns Physicians for Civil Defense

When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assured President Trump that the risk of a coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in the U.S. was very low, only about 500 persons had been tested.

This was because the CDC controlled all testing and restricted it at first to persons with a known contact who had been in China, later liberalized to persons who were severely ill.

In addition, CDC declined to use the test approved by the World Health Organization (WHO), insisting on its own test, which proved to be defective. Many laboratories are capable of developing a protocol to do tests but fear FDA/CDC enforcement actions and loss of their laboratory license.

Meanwhile, other nations are testing extensively. South Korea has 500 test sites, which have screened 100,000 people. The number of confirmed cases surged from 31 to more than 4,200 in two weeks. Some sites offer drive-through testing; one reportedly tested 384 people in one day.

"Only persons with a probable exposure are tested. In low-risk persons, a positive test is more likely to be a false positive, and the accuracy of the tests is not known," explains Jane M. Orient, M.D., president of Physicians for Civil Defense.

Now that other U.S. laboratories are permitted to test, a sudden increase in detected cases may occur, along with the expected increase in new cases from transmission by previously unidentified carriers.

This could mean travel restrictions, cancelation of public events, and other social distancing measures like those now being enforced in Italy.

As Physicians for Civil Defense has been advising for weeks, Americans need to be prepared to self-isolate. "People in Hong Kong, S.A.R., China are reportedly stocking up on rice, pasta, and toilet paper," stated president Jane Orient, M.D. "From around the U.S., people are reporting shortages of cleaning supplies, antiseptics like rubbing alcohol, and masks."

"Remember that the world is heavily dependent on China for critical manufactured items, including components of cars and electronics, and about 90 percent of our prescription and over-the-counter drugs," she stated.

"Unless severely ill, people may be better off at home than in crowded clinics where they are likely to be exposed to additional ailments," Dr. Orient stated. Americans need to learn more about self-care. She suggested the new book Three Seconds Until Midnight by Steven Hatfill, M.D., and the links to online resources that it provides.

"Preparedness, vigilance, and informed self help are key for getting through this crisis," she said. "We need to avoid both panic and complacency. Though many people die of influenza each year, it appears likely that COVID-19 is twenty times as likely to be fatal if you get it."

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