Changes of the Global HIV Drug Market in 10 Years

AIDS is becoming a chronic disease. According to data, size of the global HIV drug market approached USD 23.5 billion in 2017. Gilead dominates the global HIV drug market: it occupied more than half of the relevant global market share according to 2017 data, and its triple/quadruple regimen of 2NRTI+INSTI/NNRTI based on TAF is becoming the mainstream regimen of the HIV drug market. Here, I analyze and organize the 10-year market data of main HIV drugs on the global market, and give an overview of the global HIV drug market from the perspective of company, product, and drug combination regimen.

I. Global market share reached USD 23.3 billion, with Gilead dominating the HIV drug market

Gilead, GSK, BMS, and MSD are the leading companies on global HIV drug market, especially, Gilead: it alone occupied 51% share of the global HIV drug market (the statistical data below include its HBV drug sales). With the declining of its HCV DAA business, Gilead’s HIV drug business continues to rapidly grow, especially, the success of the new-generation HIV drugs based on TAF have brought a new growth point to Gilead, and led to the most brilliant financial report data of Gilead (see Gilead Released 2017 Financial Report: HCV Drug Business Continued to Slump while the New-generation HIV Drug Products Surged by 184% for the details).

II. The quadruple regimen Genvoya fast growing into a star of today

The success of the cocktail therapy has brought breakthroughs to AIDS control. The STRs (single-tablet regimens) have significantly prolonged patients’ lifetime, and their market share is rapidly expanding. STRs accounted for 72% share of global HIV drug market by 2017, and this figure will continue to increase.

From the perspective of single product: the quadruple regimen Genvoya becoming the star of today, with 2017 sales reaching USD 3.7 billion

From the perspective of category, HIV drugs are mainly divided into nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs), and protease inhibitors (PIs), etc., and the cocktail therapies that combine 2NRTI and other antivirals are currently the most successful AIDS control regimen.

Genvoya is a new quadruple regimen, with 2NRTI+INSTI+PK enhancer. Its sales have been advancing rapidly since approved at the beginning of 2015, and it has now become the top 1 on the HIV drug market.

2NRTI+INSTI based on TAF being the most successful cocktail therapy so far

It’s clear from the above figure that among the STRs, 2NRTI and 2NRTI+NNRTI regimens have become stable and been declining, while the triple/quadruple regimens based on 2NRTI+INSTI are gradually expanding and becoming the most important AIDS control regimens at present.

Here I list several noteworthy drugs in detail in the following table, so as to show the future development trends of HIV drug combination regimens more clearly:

The table shows more clearly the future development trends of HIV drug combination regimens:

1. The market share of the triple/quadruple regimens based on 2NRTI+INSTI will continue to rise;

2. The new-generation HIV drugs developed based on TAF represented by Genvoya, Odefsey, and Descovy will enjoy increased sales in the future and gradually substitute TDF.

AIDS will be eliminated one day, sooner or later, as the global pharmaceutical industry progresses. The current mainstream regimens have been able to control AIDS. Which will be the breakthrough point for the functional cure of AIDS in the future? Vaccine, antibody, gene therapy, or immunotherapy? I don’t know, however, what I do know is that AIDS will be ended one day.

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