Antiviral Drug Market: HIV Drugs to Become the Key to Victory

Gilead and GSK are the most noteworthy giants on the antiviral drug market, which together accounted for 68.9% market share thereof in the world in 2017. This article summarizes and compares the noteworthy enterprises and antiviral drugs on the antiviral drug market, and concludes that HIV drugs will become the key to deciding the share on the antiviral drug market, with the decline of the HCV direct-acting antivirals (DAAs).

1. HIV drugs to become the key to deciding the share on the antiviral drug market
2.  

The HCV cure rate has witnessed an unprecedented increase thanks to the excellent efficacy of the DAAs, while the sales of the anti-HCV drugs have been rapidly declining. On the other hand, the HIV drug sales are fast rising and becoming the key to deciding the share on the antiviral drug market, as HIV patients’ life time is extended and life quality improves.

Gilead is a very typical example. Take the data of Gilead’s financial reports in 2016 and 2017 for instance,

The antiviral business has been the core of Gilead, contributing to about 90% of its annual sales revenue, wherein, HCV DAAs are especially conspicuous. Gilead’s HCV drugs have started to be in decline all around since 2015. Here are some data:

1. Gilead’s sales revenue of antiviral business was USD 27.7 billion in 2016, with HCV drugs accounting for 74.2% and HIV drugs accounting for 58.3%;

2. Gilead’s sales revenue of antiviral business was USD 23.3 billion in 2017, with HCV drugs accounting for 47.3% and HIV drugs accounting for 71.1%.

Its HCV drug sales were down by 33.9% while HIV drug sales grew by 26.3%, especially the new-generation HIV drugs developed based on TAF: Genvoya, Odefsey, and Descovy have become the new strong growth points of Gilead.

Gilead accounts for a half of the global antiviral drug market, and HIV drugs will be crucial to Gilead and its competitors on the antiviral drug market in the next 5 years.

II.   Forecast of antiviral drug market in 5 years: Gilead and GSK to become the two giants

HCV drugs are in full decline and such trend will continue, and people are bearish on Gilead, however, the new-generation HIV drugs will be the key to its keeping of the dominant position in the antiviral drug market.

Gilead and GSK will become the two giants in the next 5 years among Top 10 enterprises, with a total market share of about 64%; AbbVie, J & J, Sino Biopharmaceutical, and MSD, etc. will be among the Top 10.

2018-2024: Top 5 Best-selling Antiviral Drugs

III.         Conclusion

HIV drug business has become the key in the competition of Gilead and GSK on the antiviral drug market. GSK has recently published the topline data of GEMINI-1 and GEMINI-2 clinical trials, with the dual cocktail therapy showing non-inferiority to the triple cocktail therapy, which is important progress, and the future detailed data are quite noteworthy. Dual or triple therapy and how the drug resistance is are the aspects that are noteworthy in HIV drug development. As of now, the triple cocktail regime featured by Gilead is still the mainstream, however, the advantages of dual regimens cannot be ignored!

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