9 Reasons to Buy Pfizer in 2018 and 1 Big One Not To

The end of 2017 isn’t likely to include too many surprises, like today’s announcement that Roche was buying San Diego-based Ignyta for $1.7 billion. Although there’s still time for something unexpected, for the most part investors and analysts are looking at their crystal balls for 2018. Todd Campbell, writing for The Motley Fool, thinksthat Pfizer may be the surprise strong-growth stock for next year. Here’s why.

1. Despite Lipitor losing patent protection in 2011, and sales dropping from $13 billion to $2 billion over the last 10 years or so, the company is starting to return to growth. Sales for 2017 are expected to range from $52.4 billion to $53.1 billion, which if on the high end, would be stronger than last year’s $52.8 billion.

2. R&D is paying off. Ibrance, Eliquis and Xeljaz are each blockbusters that grew more than 30 percent year over year. Campbell notes, "Going into 2018, recent FDA approvals and pipeline data should support Pfizer’s momentum."

3. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Sutent for kidney cancer, and also approved Steglujan for diabetes that it co-developed with Merck. And in December, the agency approved Bosulif for leukemia.

4. The company is expecting the FDA to approve Iorlatinib in metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer. It also plans discussions regarding talazoparib for breast cancer. And the FDA is reviewing the company’s expansion of Xeljanz for ulcerative colitis, with a decision expected in June 2018.

5. Pfizer has 30 clinical trials ongoing in immuno-oncology alone, with nine of them pivotal trials. Readouts on eight of them are expected in 2018.

6. Campbell writes, "Overall, Pfizer’s management thinks it could win 25 to 30 approvals over the next five years, including 15 billion-dollar blockbuster approvals across cancer, immunology, and rare disease."

7. Pfizer increased its dividend 6.3 percent in December and is consistent about dividends and buybacks.

8. The company—again—is expecting to make a decision on whether it will sell its consumer segment. If so, it could bring in more than $10 billion.

9. The latest tax bill will not only cut the company’s corporate tax rate to 21 percent, but the overseas revenue repatriation component of the bill means Pfizer can have access to its $160 billion in overseas funds at a lower tax rate.

Campbell writes, "Overall, the potential for profit and sales growth to climb in 2018 makes it a top stock to buy in healthcare, so if I could only buy one healthcare stock next month, it would be Pfizer."

Not everyone agrees with Campbell’s assessment, of course. Dana Blankenhorn, writing for InvestorPlace, said, "If you are an income investor with a long-term holding in Pfizer stock, you have seen your dividend rise from 24 cents per share to 34 cents, and your yield looks attractive. If you were a capital gains investor, you should probably have thrown in your hand by now, maybe when the Allergan deal failed to materialize. If you are looking for a place to put new money, Pfizer is little better than cash. It won’t fall from here, but it won’t go higher, either. It’s safety for safety’s sake."