Latest Progress of PD-1 Inhibitors: Keytruda and Opdivo are close

Based on the latest sales data disclosed in the financial reports of the pharmaceutical enterprises, there is a subtle change in the competition situation of PD-1/PD-L1 market, mainly manifesting in the gap between Keytruda and Opdivo being significantly decreasing, becoming the main impetus to drive the rapid expansion of the entire PD-1/PD-L1 drug market.

Quarter sales of O-K-T (USD 100 million)

Note: Unit of sales of Tecentriq is CHF 100 million; sales of Imfinzi in 2017Q2 were USD 1 million; sales of Bavencio are not included

We can find from the above data that the size of the entire PD-1/PD-L1 drug market shows the situation of rapid expansion, and separately reached USD 1.6 billion, USD 5.4 billion and USD 4.1 billion in 2015, 2016 and 2017H1, which will continue to rise rapidly with the joining of new drugs and expansion of new indications.

From the perspective of the market performance of specific products, Opdivo was far ahead in the beginning depending on the advantage of "many indications, and second-line treatment of NSCLC without the need for PD-L1 level detection", and its sales were USD 827 million more than that of Keytruda in 2016Q4, however, Keytruda showed explosive growth in 2017Q2 as it gradually set up overwhelming superiority in NSCLC field, and the gap between sales of O-K has narrowed to USD 314 million.

In 2017Q2, sales of Keytruda were USD 881 million, growing by 181% year on year, and 51% quarter on quarter; sales of Opdivo were USD 1.195 billion, growing by 42% year on year, and 6% quarter on quarter. In fact, the performance of Opdivo could be described as lackluster in recent two quarters, and the growth of the entire PD-1/PD-L1 drug market was all driven by Keytruda. The market share of Opdivo declined to 58%, while that of Keytruda increased to 36% in 2017H1.

Market shares of PD-1/PD-L1 drugs of the three pharmaceutical enterprises

Note: Drugs of AstraZeneca and Pfizer/Merck are not counted

Keytruda achieved brilliant achievements in 2017H1, including the approval as first-line therapy of non-squamous NSCLC, first-line/second-line therapy of urothelial carcinoma, and history’s first tumor drug specific to specific molecular marker rather than the location of tumor, however, while the situation is excellent, there has been continuous unfavorable news, including two Phase III studies of multiple myeloma being halted by FDA because more patients died compared to the control group, and the Phase III study of head and neck cancer failing to reach the endpoint. Therefore, the unpredictability of new drug R&D is completely shown in this field, and there is still no winner between O-K.

As the first marketed PD-L1 monoclonal antibody, Tecentriq’s major selling point is the indication of bladder cancer, but it has accidently suffered a setback, and Tecentriq is also indicated for lung cancer, however, it seems that the growth has not significantly increased.

Imfinzi is the 3^rd marketed PD-L1 monoclonal antibody and also indicated for bladder cancer, but only achieved USD 1 million sales in 2 months, with lousy performance compared to others. Imfinzi was marketed late, however, the combination of durvalumab + tremelimumab (PD-L1+CTLA4) was placed high hopes on. Unexpectedly, AstraZeneca announced on July 27 that MYSTIC trial did not meet the primary endpoint, and durvalumab +tremelimumab, a first-line therapy of NSCLC, did not significantly improve PFS of patients compared to SoC.

The market performance of Bavencio that is different in the indications is also worth expecting. Overall, PD-1/PD-1 represents a big market that can hold many blockbusters, and the temporary setback in certain indication cannot decide the final fate. We should also see that the giants’ joint development of PD-1/PD-L1 and inhibitors of hot targets like IDO and PARP is raging, and we still need to observe patiently.

Source: Kangantu.com

Author: Haiwaijiuyi-Kangkang